Global total production of NdFeB is around 146,000 tons,among which,the 130,000 tons are from China,accounting for 89% of the global proportion.As the specific types,current sintered NdFeB material occupies the main market of NdFeB,accounting for 94%.The average annual compound growth rate of global sintered NdFeB production is 16% from 2001-2016.
2015 global demand for high-performance NdFeB is around 54,700 tons,increasing 12%, is expected to 2020 industry demand will reach 92,000 tons, the average annual compound growth rate is 12%.At present, the total production capacity of NdFeB up to 300,000 tons in domestic,the vast majority of excess capacity concentrated in the low-end NdFeB consumption areas.
Manufacturing neodymium magnets process is very complex,and need spend long time in improving technique to get the stable quality and higher successful rate. The other,the requirement of safety performance is very strict in EPS field,in this case,the quality of products should be checked and confirmed more than 2 years before entering the supply chain.Overall, the stability of the competitive landscape and the existence of barriers avoid disorderly competition, but also to ensure that the NdFeB manufacturers in the industry maintain a certain profitability even if the environment is still poor.
The EPS steering systems is the NdFeB main application in the traditional automotive.Each EPS system will use 0.15kg NdFeB magnets, equivalent blank is around 0.25kg, according to the global 2016 car production of 94.98 million and 50% of the EPS system permeability calculation, the global blank consumption of NdFeB in EPS system is at least 1.18 Million tons. The steering system of the car plays a key role in car handling stability and safety. HPS steering system is driven by the engine,hydraulic power, the system technology is mature,but its disadvantage exists too many components,large size and heavy weight. EPS steering system is fully driven by electronic control servo motor, with a compact, efficient and reliable, energy saving and environmental protection, high security and other advantages,the HPS system has will gradually be replaced by EPS become the consensus of the market.
With the high-end models of the car’s stability and security requirements, EPS in the global traditional vehicle penetration gradually increased from 9% in 2010 to the current 50% or so. EPS system in the domestic car penetration rate is currently between 40-45%, while the European and American market EPS penetration rate has been more than 80%, Japan has reached 90%, therefore, the domestic EPS market is still very large growth space. According to the following assumptions: 1) Annual growth rate of domestic automobile is 5% year on year in 2017 and 2018, and annual growth rate of global automobile is 4% year on year; 2) Domestic EPS permeabilityis is 4.5%, 3% is the global permeability,in 2017 and 2018,the domestic growth rate of EPS system is around 15%, the global EPS system growth rate is around 10%. ”
2.New Energy Vehicles
The permanent magnet synchronous motor of new energy vehicles with a simple structure,power density,light weight and other multiple advantages,which is the mainstream in motor choice.Compared with other types of motors,the main advantage of permanent magnet synchronous motor is that in the same quality and volume, permanent magnet synchronous motor for new energy vehicles can provide maximum power output and acceleration. The space and weight requirements for new energy vehicles are very strict,therefore,the vast majority of new energy vehicle enterprises choose permanent magnet synchronous motor.The disadvantages of permanent magnet synchronous motor is that permanent magnet materials in high temperature, vibration and overcurrent conditions,which will cause to magnetic decline phenomenon,so in complex conditions, the stability of the motor will be affected.In view of the above advantages of permanent magnet synchronous motor, in addition to ModelX and Models,the world’s nearly 90% of new energy vehicles are using permanent magnet synchronous motor. The model3 produced by Tesla in July 2017 also turned to the rare earth permanent magnet motor, which means that rare earth permanent magnetism completely occupied the new energy automotive market.
Each electric vehicle consumption of NdFeB is 5-10kg,each plug-in hybrid car consumes 2-3kg,each hybrid car consumes 1-2kg.According to the following assumptions: 1) Global PHEV and EV production has increased 35% and 40% respectively in 2017-2018 2) The dosage of EV, PHEV and EV was 0.2 Kg, 2.5kg and 1.5kg; 2017-2018 global new energy vehicles NdFeB consumption is expected to 92.06 million tons and 118.67 million tons.
3.Hard Disk Drive – Demand Shrinking Trend
In 2014,the global hard disk drives shiped 564 million,an increase of 2.36%,but after 2015 due to solid state drive competition,hard disk drive market share began to shrink,2015-2016 hard disk drives shipments were down 16.84% and 9.21% respectively.
NdFeB in a single hard disk drive is amount of 10g,according to the global hard drive in 2016 of 426 million shipments,2016 NdFeB consumption of HHD is 4258 tons.We expect the shipments of HHD to continue to shrink in the next two years.We assume that the global HHD shipments in 2017 and 2018 are reduced by 5% year on year, the corresponding consumption of NdFeB is 4045 tons and 3483 tons respectively.
4.Consumer Electronics – Mobile NdFeB Demand Steady Growth
NdFeB is an indispensable part of high-end accessory for smartphones,with the electro-acoustic part (microphone, mini speaker/receiver,bluetooth headset,hi-fi stereo headset),vibration motor,camera focus and even later sensor applications,wireless charging and other functions are required to use NdFeB strong magnetic properties.The amount of NdFeB for per phone is around 2g,2016 global mobile phone shipments are 1.961 billion,an increase of 3.21%,the corresponding amount of NdFeB is expected to 3922 tons.Assuming the average annual growth rate of shipments in the next two years is 2%, the amount of NdFeB in 2017-2018 is 4,000 tons and 4080 tons.
5, Wind Turbine – Direct drive motor penetration growth and develop space is vast
The generator of the wind turbine consists mainly of double-feed and direct-drive,in the direct drive generator is driven by the multi-pole generator directly connected with the impeller,thus eliminating the traditional components of the gearbox.Depend on rare earth permanent magnet generator technology,the higher efficiency of the generator,the pole distance more smaller,therefore, permanent magnet direct drive motor has become the future trend of technological development, in the wind turbine,the permeability gradually increase.
2016 global wind turbine installed capacity is 5464.20 million kilowatts, of which the direct drive motor penetration rate of about 35%,per kilowatt installed capacity corresponding to the amount of NdFeB is 0.67kg, calculated by the 2016 global wind turbine NdFeB consumption is 127.5 million tons.According to forecasts,by 2021 the new global wind turbine installed capacity will reach 75 million kilowatts,as a basis,2017-2020 global wind turbine installed capacity of the new annual growth rate will be 6.5%.Assuming 2017-2018 permanent magnet direct drive motor in the wind turbine unit annual growth rate is 1%, then 2017-2018 global wind turbine neodymium iron boron dosage is expected to 139.67 million tons and 152.27 million tons respectively, an increase of 9.54% and 9.46%.
6. Energy-saving Elevators – EPS and micro-motor NdFeB demand steady growth
Elevator power consumption is huge,which is one of the largest high-rise building energy consumption equipment.According to the China Elevator Association estimates that the elevator daily power consumption accounts for 5-15% of the total building energy consumption.At present,the traction machine used in elevator is mainly permanent magnet synchronous motor and traditional asynchronous motor.Permanent magnet synchronous motor using direct drive mode, drive efficiency significantly improved at the same time,than the traditional motor energy consumption significantly reduced by about 50%.With the national energy-saving emission reduction policies continue to implement,the use of permanent magnet synchronous motor energy-saving elevator is undoubtedly the future direction of development.
2016 domestic elevator production was 7714,000 units, an increase of 1.5%, accounting for the proportion of global elevator production more than 90%.2016 domestic energy-saving elevator penetration rate was about
60%,in addition,each energy-saving elevator NdFeB dosage is 7kg,according to the calculation of 2016 domestic energy-saving elevator,NdFeB consumption was expected to 3240 tons. 1) Taking into account the 2016 real estate investment and new house sales area of a substantial increase in the demand for elevators is expected to be gradually released in the two years,assuming 2017-2018 annual growth rate of domestic elevator production is 10%; 2)the permeability increase by 5% per year.Based on the above assumptions, it is expected that the amount of NdFeB in domestic energy-saving elevators will be 3861 tons and 4574 tons respectively,increasing by 19.17% and 18.46% respectively in 2017-2018 years.
7. Inverter Air Conditioner – EPS and micro-motor NdFeB demand steady growth
At present,the magnets used in inverter air conditioner are divided into ferrite permanent magnetic materials and high performance NdFeB permanent magnet materials.Ferrite permanent magnetic materials used in the production of low-end inverter air conditioner,high-performance NdFeB permanent magnet material is mainly used for the production of high-end inverter air conditioner.Under the energy-saving environmental protection industry policy support and technology upgrade trend,the ferrite permanent magnet material in the inverter air conditioner application will be gradually replaced by high-performance NdFeB permanent magnet material.
2016 domestic air-conditioning production are 16049 units,an increase of 2.55%,the production of inverter air conditioner are 3963 units,an increase of 2.70%.2016 inverter air conditioner in the high-end inverter air conditioner permeability is expected to be around 40%,and each high-end inverter air conditioner on average need to use high-performance NdFeB permanent magnet material is around 0.28kg,according to the estimated,2016 domestic inverter air conditioner NdFeB consumption will reach 4438 tons.Assuming 2017-2018 annual average growth of air conditioning production is 3%, high-end inverter air conditioner penetration increase 2% by per year,then 2017-2018 domestic inverter air conditioner NdFeB consumption are 4800 tons and 5179 tons,an increase of 8.15% And 7.90%.
8. Intelligent Robot – NdFeB blue ocean marketh
NdFeB is mainly used in intelligent robot sensors and drive motors.Intelligent robots include industrial robots, professional service robots and individual/home robots.According to the International Federation of Robotics,global sales of industrial robots, professional service robots and individual/home service robots increased by 29%, 11% and 17.5% respectively in 2014.The future intelligent manufacturing and intelligent service needs rapid develop is the only way to upgrade of industrial upgrading and consumption,combined with the International Federation of robotics forecast,the next few years,the industrial robot production and sales growth rate will between 12-15%,professional service robot production and sales growth rate will between 10-12%,personal/home service robot production and sales growth rate is around 20%.Single industrial robots and professional services robot sales need around 20kg NdFeB,a single individual/home service robot NdFeB consumption is about 0.5kg.According to the forecast of robot production and sales data for single robot, it is estimated that the consumption of NdFeB in the global robot field is 9431 tons, 10817 tons and 12799 tons respectively, increasing by 13.5%, 14.7% and 18.3%.